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Figure 7.7.
Reproduction compared with Schwabe cycles
In conclusion, the model with a constraint on solar activity is, at first
glance, much less convincing than the freely identified model. This must
now be confirmed by statistical analysis, and especially by results from other
data combinations.
Constraint of nullity for anthropogenic sensitivity
Finally, identification under the (unlikely?) hypothesis of
insignificant anthropogenic sensitivity can be carried out. With the constraint
=
we obtain the following collection of parameters, and the
simulations shown in Figure 7.8.
S
0,
c
lim
S
irr
(
°C/Wm
-2
)
S
clim
(
°C
)
S
vol
(
°C
)
T
clim
(
an
)
S
irr11
(
°C/Wm
-2
)
T
E
(
°C
)
Free
model
1.28
17.5
10.7
90.0
0.90
0.027
Forced
model
0
19.5
8.7
86.5
1.09
0.04
With the obvious exception of
S
clim
, estimates remain close to those seen
with free identification.
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