Introduction - Climate Change: Identification and Projections - page 10

the input signals, especially those resulting from solar activity. The initial
predictions do not provide any spectacular results. With natural climate
variability, it would be necessary to wait another decade or so to be able to
understand whether the current stagnation of temperatures is only a pause in
warming, or the prelude to an out-and-out turn around. Nevertheless, looking
back to the situation in 2000 when nobody would have predicted a possible
slow-down in global warming, blind simulations carried out without
including any information following 2000, predict with surprising accuracy
the temperature levels that we are witnessing today.
Chapter 12 concludes that, on the basis of climatic observations, it is not
possible to prove that human activity has a significant influence on the
climate, and everything indicates that the determining factor is solar activity.
Natural climate variability must be added to it. The paroxystic warming of
the last quarter of the 20 th Century resulted from the conjunction of strong
solar activity with a loss of heat from the oceans under the effect of erratic
deep ocean circulation. The ongoing steady values result from the inversion
of these two causes. The IPCC's position is exactly the opposite, basing their
arguments on physical and mathematical models. However, as yet, all
predictions based on the IPCC models have been contradicted by later
observations, while the model identified, using observations which go back
more than a millennium, is confirmed by the current evolution of the
climate.