Introduction - Climate Change: Identification and Projections - page 5

necessary to look over more than a millennium, where uncertainties
regarding paleoclimatic reconstructions are added to natural fluctuations.
Moreover, the structure of the model must be finely-tuned to the objectives
as well as to the identification method, otherwise the data will remain
unreadable and analysis of uncertainties will remain difficult.
Nevertheless, this text shows that it is possible to obtain significant
results in this way. It is therefore surprising that the community of
climatologists is ignoring a technique which is taught in the first cycle of
university courses, despite the fact that all the ingredients and application
tools are readily available. It is also possible that in trialing such an
approach, incoherent results were obtained, and therefore not published, or
that results were self-censored as they were poorly-aligned with the other
mainstream results presented by the IPCC.
1.3. Expectations and results
Above we criticized the fact that the current situation regarding physical
knowledge does not allow us to accurately assess the planet's fundamental
climatic parameters. Although unable to work miracles, identification can
nevertheless provide results which can call into question the current
scientific consensus on what is commonly referred to as “climate change”.
Firstly, it will be argued that the assertion that the warming seen over the
previous century is caused by human action is not confirmed, nor is it
contradicted by observations. It therefore remains based solely on physical
considerations, with a number of uncertainties to be addressed later
(section 5.8). At the very least, identification can help to eliminate the
extreme high values of climate sensitivity which have been forecast. This
result falls short of expectations, but it would serve to counter the IPCC's
familiar argument that the simple observation of climatic data gives evidence
of the human influence on global warming.
Subsequently, the estimate of the sensitivity coefficient for solar activity
and its range of uncertainty clearly show that fluctuations in solar activity
constitute the predominant cause of recent global warming. The IPCC is
opposed to this hypothesis, arguing that the variations in solar irradiance are
too weak, and denying that there is any other way which the sun may have