Conclusions - Climate Change: Identification and Projections - page 129

12
Conclusions
12.1. On the identification
The very high confidence shown by the IPCC regarding the human origin
of global warming is supported by an impressive theoretical corpus, and a
collection of numerical simulations, carried out by dozens of research
institutes, spending enormous computing resources.
Despite the established argument, this work intends to initiate a reliable
methodology for macro-modeling of the climate process, using only historic
observations; the objective being to determine a “black box-type” model
based on global climate observations. While the modeling of industrial
processes by identification is commonly carried out with success,
identification of climatic processes presents difficulties and limits which are
inherent to this approach 1 . The constraints on the issue practically impose
the following fundamental options:
- a dynamic model with half a dozen parameters at most;
- continuous processing of climate archives over periods of the order of a
millennium in duration;
- a method of identification by minimizing output error, accompanied by
ad hoc statistical analysis;
1 This is may be the reason why we appear to be the first to fully apply the established theory
of identification of dynamic systems, even though all the elements, models and climatic data
would have allowed this to be done for some time.