Historic Minuscule Simulations - Climate Change: Identification and Projections - page 99

9
Historic Minuscule Simulations
9.1. Overview of IPCC simulations
The term “historic” refers to the period 1850 to the current year, where
simulations can be compared to instrumental measurements, available from
this period over almost all parts of the globe.
Figure 9.1 below is taken from the fifth Assessment Report (AR5,
Figure 10.21). It gives a graphic summary of multiple results obtained from
the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ( CMIP 5). This summary's main
author is Phil Jones [JON 13], Director of the CRU, already mentioned
several times above.
Three lines can be seen in each graph: 1. Historic observations; 2. The
average and the range of simulations only using natural forcing; 3. The
average and the range of simulations using both natural and anthropogenic
forcing. The uncertainty ranges are claimed to be at 90%. Despite the
problems of legibility, it can be noted that the natural factors alone are far
from able to account for the increase in temperature, or in Ocean Heat
Content (OHC).
To achieve this result, dozens of research centers independently
developed very large numerical models and carried out numerous, long and
costly simulations. In light of this, a study as limited as ours would seem not
to have the same clout. However, we will present alternative (and
incompatible) simulations, and propose some explanations for them.