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The analysis which follows therefore gives the elements for the
systematic evaluation of the results, leaving the reader free to decide upon
their own levels of confidence as they see fit.
8.2. Regions and intervals of confidence
Figure 8.1 shows the identified confidence regions associated with the 16
data combinations, grouped according to paleotemperatures. It is almost
redundant alongside the following Figure 8.2, where, to within one factor,
the intervals of confidence are given by the width and height of each
ellipsoid.
Moberg
Ljungqvist
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-5
0
5
-5
0
5
Sclim
Sclim
Loe
h
le
Jones
-
Mann
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-5
0
5
-5
0
5
Sclim
Sclim
Figure 8.1.
Confidence regions
Given the diversity and the uncertainties which affect the paleoclimatic
data, we should not be surprised that the estimates are significantly scattered.
Some would probably like to conclude from this that the principle of
modeling by identification is fruitless, and unable to lead to quantified
estimates of fundamental climatic parameters. Nevertheless, using the results
above, we will extract a substantial quantity of information.
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