Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
REFERENCES AND FURTHER
READING
There is now indisputable proof that droughts and
subsequent heavy rainfall periods are cyclic, not only
in semi-arid parts of the globe, but also in the
temperate latitudes. This cyclicity correlates well
with the 18.6-year lunar tide in such diverse regions
as North America, Argentina, northern China, the
Nile Valley, and India. There is also evidence that
the 11-year sunspot cycle is present in rainfall time
series in some countries. Long-term astronomical
periodicities, especially in the northern hemisphere,
permit scientists to pinpoint the most likely year that
drought or abnormal rainfall will occur, while the
onset of an ENSO event with its global consequences
permits us to predict climatic sequences up to nine
months in advance. These two prognostic indicators
should give countries time to modify both long- and
short-term economic strategies to negate the effects
of drought or heavy rainfall.
Unfortunately, very few governments in the twen-
tieth century have lasted longer than 11 years - the
length of the shortest astronomical cycle. Realistically,
positive political responses - even in the United States
- to dire drought warnings are probably impossible.
Societies must rely upon the efficiency and power of
their permanent civil services to broadcast the
warnings, to prepare the programs reducing the
effects of the hazards, and to pressure governments of
the day to make adequate preparations.
Finally, it should be realized that the astronomical
cycles and oscillations such as the Southern or North
Atlantic Oscillations account for only 15-30 per cent
of the variance in rainfall in countries where their
effects have been defined. This means that 70 per cent
or more of the variance in rainfall records must be due
to other climatic factors. For example, during the
drought that affected eastern Australia in 1986-1987,
Sydney was inundated with over 400 mm of rainfall,
breaking the previous 48-hour rainfall record, and
generating the largest storm waves to affect the coast
in eight years. This randomness exemplifies the
importance of understanding regional and local
climatic processes giving rise to climatic hazards.
These regional and local aspects will be described in
the following chapters.
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N
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Climate and Society
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Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies: Scientific Basis and
Societal Impact
. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
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Hoyt, D.V. and Schatten, K.H. 1997.
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Regional temperatures and precipitation.
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Hurrell, J.W. 2002a.
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices
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Hurrell, J.W. 2002b.
North Pacific (NP) index information
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<http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/~jhurrell/np.html>
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