Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
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CONCLUDING COMMENTS
This chapter has shown that earthquakes and volca-
noes are no longer poorly understood phenomena
that invoke fear, superstition, and pagan attempts at
control because of a lack of knowledge about their
origin and behavior. While earthquakes and volca-
noes can still kill a large number of people, and can
occur with extreme suddenness, our knowledge is
reaching the stage where a significant number of
these events can be predicted in space and time to
permit measures to be taken to minimize the loss of
life. Since the widespread acceptance of continental
drift theory, and the accurate measurement of
thousands of earthquake epicenters, the most likely
locations of future earthquake activity have been
mapped for the globe. Sound scientific observations
and instrumental measurements are defining the
best precursors of imminent tremors or eruptions.
The success of such techniques in China in the 1970s
is exemplary; the failure of authorities in California
to install sensitive strain gauges along the San
Andreas Fault, which could have forecast the 1989
San Francisco earthquake, is alarming. Complacency
or disbelief will always plague our attempts to predict
both earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Both traits
can be justified because there is still a large random
component to the occurrence of these hazards. The
Tangshan earthquake of 1976 and the eruptions of
Mt St Helens in 1980 and El Chichon in 1982 are
only a few of the recent examples supporting this
statement.
The next two chapters will describe in more detail
the exact nature of, and phenomena associated with,
earthquakes and volcanoes. As well, some of the
more significant events in recorded history will be
described to reinforce the view that these two
hazards are still amongst the most destructive natural
events to afflict humanity.
REFERENCES AND FURTHER
READING
Bak, P. 1997.
How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized
Criticality
. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
