Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
• Climate change as a driver for both sectoral and cross-sectoral consequences, in
a multi-driver context
• Infrastructure strategies as mitigation issues and opportunities
• Understanding cross-cuting science issues that underpin assessments, e.g.,
• Climate science and services
• Treatments of variance, extremes, and uncertainties: e.g., probabilistic
methods, uncertainty quantification
• Data, especially climate data needed to inform critical infrastructure issues,
including proprietary issues
• Non-linearities and tipping points/thresholds as well as performance
degradation leading up to abrupt changes
• Scale dependencies (e.g., isolated vs. widespread), slow versus fast impacts
• User interactions: visualization/communication, stakeholder participation
• Risk management science: risk-based scaling/framing/scoping capabilities,
especially given uncertainties that surround large investments for long-term
structures
• Multiple stresses and drivers
• Projecting economic and social changes, including changing demand paterns,
population distribution, and financial conditions
• Distributional effects of urban and infrastructure strategies and actions (related
to . . . (other study) as well)
• Learning from emerging responses
In some cases, it is possible to leverage existing capabilities, as the NISAC modeling
tools demonstrate; and the experience in utilizing Los Alamos tools to evaluate emer-
gency responder options for the Wallow Fire in AZ shows that such capabilities can be
used not only to inform strategic thinking but also to provide actionable results for real-
time decisions. Box 4 offers a specific example of a capacity development need.
B. Assessment Findings
Regarding implications of climate change for infrastructure and urban system research
needs in the United States, we find that:
• Improving knowledge about interdependencies among infrastructures exposed
to climate change risks and vulnerabilities will support strategies and actions to
reduce vulnerabilities
See Section IV A
High consensus, moderate evidence
• The challenge is to recognize that, although uncertainties about climate change
and payoffs from specific response strategies are considerable, many actions
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