Urban Systems As Place-Based Foci For Infrastructure Interactions - Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities - page 49

HARDEE HARDEE

HIGHLANDS

MARTIN

Legend

Palm
Beach

DESOTO

Sample counties Sea level rise - 4m

GLADES

PALM
BEACH

Counties Sea level rise - 1m

CHARLOTTE

HENDRY

Urbanized areas

LEE

north

BROWARD

0 40 80 120km

COLLIER

MIAMI
DADE
MONROE

Miami

Water

Figure 12 Curtis and Schneider, 2011, map the vulnerable parts in the study area to 1 meter and
4 meter sea level rise

in response to both sea level rise and increased frequency of extreme events is likely to
occur or, more likely, migrating persons that would normally choose destinations in
impacted areas will select alternative destinations. These displaced populations create
new demand for built infrastructure that in turn generates new economic activity that
atracts new workers and associated households to the new locations. This movement
then becomes a motivating driver for regional convergence that concentrates vulnerable
nodes in constrained geographic locations.
In this case study we consider sea level rise-driven migration between now and 2030
in South Florida following the methodology of Curtis and Schneider, 2011. The second
form of sea-level rise is potential flooding associated with major storms or hurricane
events. This type of inundation is likely to be more extreme and to affect a greater area
than the case above and may be temporary or permanent in its impact. In Figure 12
above, Curtis and Schneider (2011) map the vulnerable areas in the study area to 1 meter
and 4 meter sea level rise. The six-county Florida case study encompasses an area with
significant risk to human populations. Miami-Dade has rates of net in-migration during
the last five years greater than 17% compared to the national average of 11%). The ma-
jority of the 6 million people in the region live in the greater Miami metropolitan area,
Fort Lauderdale, or Palm Beach. Places with fewer resources may be less equipped to re-
spond effectively compared to places with greater resources. The resulting forecasts are
based on trends for the projection horizon given status quo population change, assum-
ing that the current rates of natural increase and migration will continue for all counties
through 2030. In this simulation, population impacts extend to both nearby and distant
counties through out-migration streams.
The population implications, however, are not restricted to inundated counties be-
cause counties directly impacted by sea-level rise are connected to other places through