Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
businesses, 2) impacts on service providers and business-to-business activities, and
finally 3) regional or even national impacts.
A climate effect, such as severe weather event, will be experienced in all or part of a
metropolitan area. As it is, services to consumers can be lost that reduce mobility affect-
ing commuting paterns and possibly causing lost wages. Access to health care can be
restricted for a time. Lighting, heating or air-conditioning can be lost by power outages.
The flow of clean water for drinking and washing can be disrupted and disasters lasting
days or weeks can disrupt solid waste removal. Businesses can be shutered from a loss
of power or flooding which will reduce sales and profitability. In serious events, hospi-
tals can lose power or water raising critical health concerns.
An often unseen impact of service disruptions from severe weather (including
climate-induced effects) is on business-to-business supply chains. Manufacturers need
raw materials and parts, and likewise businesses in every sector of the economy rely
on other firms to supply necessary inputs for their final products and economic liveli-
hoods. For example, restaurants in the northeast have historically relied heavily on gulf
coast shrimp just as auto manufacturers in Detroit have relied on parts from Mexico and
elsewhere; a disruption in shrimp harvesting in Louisiana causes a hardship in Boston.
In this way, service disruptions can create “ripple effects” throughout the economy, af-
fecting much larger regions and even have national implications for highly concentrated
services and major, long lasting disasters, especially as “just in time” supply delivery
systems increase the emphasis on rapid responses.
It is worth noting that economic activity tends to be fluid both geographically and
temporally. Economic demand can sometimes be pent-up and new markets for services
can be found over time. Hence over long enough time periods and wide geographic
regions, economists find that the impact of an individual disaster can be apparently ab-
sorbed by the broader economy as alternative sources of supply are found. But such ag-
gregation over time and space masks real short-term effects on specific individuals and
businesses. It ignores the need for cash flow and the time pressures for more optimal
efficiency. And it ignores the price spikes that can occur due to shortages and loss of
services.
While the effects of severe events spurred by climate change are most dramatic, incre-
mental climate change has impacts as well. Over time, rising average temperatures and
seas are projected to affect the demand for services. Agricultural products, for example,
may come from different locations or disappear altogether, while others may appear
from new locations. Over the long term, sea level rise could alter development paterns
along the coasts. Such changes could give rise to the need for geographic relocation in
infrastructure and services, as well as effects on their magnitude. Infrastructure will fol-
low demand, but this movement will also necessitate investment. Shifts in population
centers and altered paterns of agriculture will still require transportation, energy, com-
munications, water supply and wastewater/drainage services. Where they do not exist
or do not exist in sufficient quantity, new infrastructure will be necessary.
Infrastructure systems and the services they provide are highly interdependent in
complex economies typified by urban areas. Because they are often co-located, they are
subject to the same climate stressors, and damage to one will typically entail damage
to others. The services also influence and rely on each other, and damage to one may
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