Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
secondary changes in transport paterns. They note that sea level rise and storm surge
may be the most important direct consequences for transportation. However, while
stating that the impacts are regional in nature, they also say that the impacts are “am-
biguous” due to reported opposing effects on road safety and rail disruptions and the
imprecision of climate output models. These are cited are research needs.
Water
A recent study by Freas, et al. (2010) clearly indicated that, based on the IPCC Fourth As-
sessment findings, climate change will affect the water cycle, and that water and waste
water utilities will need to adapt infrastructure designs over a 20- to 40-year planning
time frame. They estimate that addressing severe precipitation, water scarcity, snow
melt and sea level rise effects through 2050 is a critical priority and will cost the nation
from $448 to $944 billion in increased infrastructure and operating and maintenance ex-
penses. An alternative view is provided by Rosenberg, et al., who atempted to address
some of the known limitations of storm water run-off by employing historical records
and regional climate models (based on two GCMs) to estimate extreme precipitation
and determine design parameters (Rosenberg et al., 2009). Their analysis suggested that,
while increases in extreme rainfall magnitudes were indicated, projections varied sub-
stantially by both model employed and region of the state. As a result, the range was
too large to determine engineering design requirements. Nevertheless, the available
evidence does suggest that current drainage infrastructure may be inadequate. Urban
water managers are focused on water supply, wastewater management, water for rec-
reation, water for ecosystems and associated services, storm water drainage, protection
from coastal and river flooding, and river transport. Water managers in meeting these
needs are not only dependent upon internal resources and interactions, but they also are
influenced by those from outside. Examples of outside influences are federal and state
regulations and institutions and water supply sources, water demands, floods, and pol-
lution originating from outside their boundaries.
A dominant issue in some regions and urban systems is aging water infrastructure.
In 2009, the American Society of Civil Engineers gave grades of D or D- to all aspects of
water and wastewater management (dams, drinking water, levees, inland water ways,
and wastewater). According to their study, $367.5 billion was needed in investment over
the next 5 years.
http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/sites/default/files/RC2009
, accessed November 13, 2011). Impacts of this situation include grow-
ing operation and maintenance costs, inability to meet present and future demands, and
health concerns (Grayman, 2009). As described in Daigger (2009) and others, however,
aging infrastructure presents an opportunity to incorporate new planning paradigms
into water management.
_exsummary.pdf
3) MODEL INTEGRATION PERSPECTIVES
A final perspective is in terms of challenges for model integration. One key example is
integrating models of critical infrastructures with integrated assessment models (IAM).
Through its impact on infrastructure and on the economic activity the infrastructure
supports, climate change can transiently or permanently reduce regional economic out-
put, and thereby reduce regional employment over what it would be otherwise. Due to
Search WWH ::
Custom Search