Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation
, was released as Transportation Research
Board Special Report 290 (Transportation Research Board, 2008). It clearly described
how climate change is likely to affect transportation based on anticipated climate effects
from the IPCC Fourth Assessment. It stated categorically that while impacts would vary
by mode of transportation and region, they would be widespread and costly in both
human and economic terms. It went on to recommend that transportation profession-
als incorporate climate change into their investment decisions and adopt strategic, risk-
based approaches to decision making, among other things. Whereas this TRB report was
general and non-specific on the impacts on transportation, the second was a case study
that demonstrated and detailed many of the impacts in a specific region (see above).
Commonly referred to as the
Gulf Coast Study
(SAP 4.7, 2008), the report bracketed likely
future climate conditions between Houston, TX and Mobile, AL using the then latest
and most inclusive techniques. As described above, the study found widespread vul-
nerability to sea level rise and storm surge: more than 2,400 miles of major roadway are
likely to be permanently inundated by a sea-level rise of four feet (including subsidence)
along with 246 miles of railways, 3 airports and three-quarters of the area's freight facili-
ties. Even greater, but temporary, impacts are expected for short term flooding due to
storm surges.
Reports on individual modes of transportation have been issued since 2008. Most
recently, the Federal Transit Administration released its study on the impacts on transit
facilities in 2011. Citing many urban examples, it provides a framework for transit agen-
cies to assess their vulnerabilities. It notes, for example, that the most disruptive near
term impact is likely to be intense rainfall that floods subway tunnels and low-lying fa-
cilities, bus lots, and rights-of-way. The report also identifies recent weather events that
have disrupted transit service, including rail buckling in the Washington DC Metro and
the Boston âTâ and heavy rains in New York that shut down 19 major segments of the
subway system. These examples illustrate the significance of severe weather events that
are anticipated as a result of climate change.
Because of their apparent vulnerability and economic importance, ports have recent-
ly been an important focus of assessment studies. Nicholls, et al., (2008) ranked 136 port
cities according to their vulnerability to coastal flooding. In 2009, the UN Conference
on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) convened 180 experts from 60 countries to dis-
cuss, among other things, the potential impacts of climate change on maritime transport
systems and supply chains, and issued a Summary of Proceedings (UN Conference on
Trade and Development, 2009) UNCTAD has followed up this effort with a forthcoming
book specifically focused on port impacts (Aerts, et al., 2011).
In the U.S., studies specifically on aviation have lagged behind those on other modes
of transportation. One study by Pejovic, et al. (2009) statistically analyzed the weather
events that caused delay at Heathrow Airport in London and then applied these mod-
els to future climate conditions. Studies of climate change vulnerabilities in New York
City and Boston have noted vulnerabilities of coastal airports to sea-level rise and storm
surges.
Given the rapidly evolving literature on transportation impacts, Koetse and Rietveld
(2009) atempted to provide an overview of empirical indings in 2009. They found that
demand paterns from tourism and agricultural production were likely to shift, causing
Search WWH ::
Custom Search