Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
watershed, utility service area, or grid, these analyses seek to answer questions of energy
security, sustainability, and operational optimization that cannot be addressed within
traditional geographic or political boundaries. Water often plays a unifying role in this
research, especially in the American West, as policymakers seek to beter understand the
implications of one of the most direct and politically sensitive aspects of climate change
on energy and land use planning.
Although recent analyses have examined linkages in a number of regions (e.g., sec-
tion III b above), the US West has been the focus of particular atention. This is due in
part to the practical realities of population growth, increased energy and water demand,
and existing vulnerabilities to environmental change but also to the political leadership
of groups like the Western Governors Association that are advancing aggressive renew-
able energy strategies and recognize the vulnerability of their local economies to climate
change. This region is also historically drought prone with multiple local, State, federal
regulations impacting the use of water across competing demands including agriculture,
industry, energy, and residential use. With the energy sector placing increased demands
on this limited resource, an improved understanding of current water requirements in
the energy sector is critical for near term decision making on permiting of projects as
well as longer term capacity expansion planning. When climate change considerations
are incorporated, this calculus becomes more complicated, both in terms of the trade-
ofs across speciic power technologies and their relative exposure to future changes
in temperature or water availability. Further, both water and land use considerations
inluence decision making in Western States that often rely on an agriculture base for
their economy but are also endowed with signiicant renewable and traditional energy
resources to exploit. Research, analysis, and data that can help inform how resource and
water availability may change under diferent climate change scenarios is therefore of
high value to State and regional planners. Even where signiicant uncertainties exist, the
ability to beter forecast and plan for possible scenarios will help ensure a more lexible,
and timely policy response to environmental stresses and to understand the integrated
nature of water, land use, and energy in that region.
For the renewable energy sector, for instance, improved forecasting and analysis of
climate change impacts is critical. Transmission planning at a regional level and state
approvals for capacity expansion will directly inluence the feasibility and cost of large
states like California in meeting renewable portfolio standard (RPS) targets that will be
dependent on energy imports from neighboring states. If water or other environmental
constraints afect energy production or the approval of renewable energy projects, the
long-term cost of Western states in meeting their RPS goals will increase signiicantly.
As states also consider alternative fuel and transportation strategies, a nexus of land use,
water, and energy will also emerge as policy makers consider the optimization of land
and biomass resources for power, fuel, or food under increasing variable, and uncer-
tain, hydrologic cycles in future. Ensuring that the quality of data, analysis, and accurate
scenario development to inform these integrated assessments keeps pace with policy
design and implementation will be critical, particularly in the West and other regions
that may be most vulnerable to climate change.
Recent research taking an integrated approach to addressing energy, water, and
land-use considerations is summarized and assessed in the NCA Technical Report on
