Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Figure 15 Projected wildfire
risks in California, 2085 (EPRI/
NERC 2008)
The impacts of an increase in severe weather are not limited to sea-level and hur-
ricane-prone areas. For example, rail transportation lines, which carry approximately
two-thirds of the coal to the nation's power plants, often follow riverbeds, especially in
the Appalachian region. More intense rainstorms, which have been observed and pro-
jected, can lead to river f looding, which can “wash out” or degrade nearby rail beds and
roadbeds. This is also a problem in the Midwest, which experienced major f looding of
the Mississippi River in 1993 and 2008 and is also vulnerable to climate change efects,
from temperature changes to severe weather events. For instance, the year 2011 was
marked by a February intrusion of severe cold weather into Texas, New Mexico, and Ari-
zona which led to electrical blackouts and natural gas shutdowns (Souder, 2011, FERC,
2011); springtime looding (Anada, 2011) in the Missouri and Mississippi River valleys; a
prolonged heat wave and drought in the Southern Plains, particularly Texas (Burkhardt,
2011and a modest Hurricane Irene that tracked through the densely populated mid-
Atlantic and Northeast regions, spawning many local power outages (Clayton, 2011).
Possible efects of climate change on electricity grid reliability have been studied
by EPRI and NERC (EPRI and NERC, Joint Technical Summit on Reliability Impacts of
Extreme Weather and Climate Change, 2008), and additional studies are being carried
out by the California Energy Commission and others. The EPRI/NERC joint technical
summit found that uncertainty is on the rise, calling for improvements in forecasts and
a need to increase grid lexibility. Concerns include impacts of weather on paterns of
demand on supply facilities such as wind power (afecting transmission demands), ex-
treme summer power demands that can cause severe voltage depression, efects of high-
er temperatures on the lifetime of distribution transformers, and efects of high wind
speeds on overhead power lines and risks from wildires (Figure 15 ) .
Overall, the nation's energy infrastructure is extensive, expensive, and diverse.
Its size indicates that climate change impacts are unlikely to have a sizeable impact at
the national scale, e.g., on the national Gross Domestic Product. Current information
 
 
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