Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
positive). The overall model was then used to project the efects of climate change (in-
cluding urban heat index) on residential energy consumption. Rong showed a slight
UHI savings in primary energy nationwide currently because of the national domi-
nance of heating over cooling under current climate (the opposite was true in cooling-
dominated states). In the future the UHI efect on energy was estimated to cost energy
at the national level, as savings in cold states (currently in the range of 3% to 10%) give
way to losses (currently about 1% in warm states). This is because cold states will turn
warm and warm states will turn warmer; so proportionately more time and energy will
be spent on cooling.
3) FACTORS AFFECTING HEATING AND COOLING BESIDES
CLIMATE: DEMOGRAPHY
Population growth is still considered to be the largest overall driver of energy demand
increases in buildings, especially residential. However, other demographic factors are
also important. The age of the occupants could become important as the U.S. population
ages (Ruth, 2006, Rong, 2006, Tonn and Eisenberg, 2007, and Crawley, 2008). Although
many of people over 65 are poor and may depend on lifeline rates and fuel subsidies,
Tonn and Eisenberg (2007) point out that the population aged 65-84 (growing much
faster than the overall population) is expected to more than double between 2000 and
2050, and that currently older people consume more energy per capita than other age
groups (e.g. 2.5 times the heating, over 3 times the cooling, and similar large diferences
for other end uses).
4) WATER HEATING AND COOLING IN BUILDINGS AND INDUSTRY
Water heating is a major source of energy consumption in buildings, reportedly account-
ing for 2.58 quadrillion Btu or 12.9% of all site energy use in buildings in 2008, and for
3..81 quadrillion Btu (quads) or 9.5% of all primary energy use in buildings (DOE, 2011).
There should be savings in water heating as temperatures warm. However, no stud-
ies were found of the potential energy savings associated water heating in buildings
or for water demand in the residential and commercial sectors. Likewise, some of the
energy use in industrial processes involves the heating and cooling of water. The 2006
Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (EIA, 2009) reports that of the total 15.7
quads of fuel consumption in manufacturing, about 3.5 quads was direct use for either
process heating or process cooling and refrigeration. Much of this industrial energy con-
sumption undoubtedly involves heating or cooling of water and some direct heating
or cooling that also would be afected by climate change. However, the literature sur-
vey conducted for this chapter did not identify any new studies of changes in industrial
energy consumption associated with climate change. Applying the estimate from SAP
4.5, a 1°C increase in temperature would produce a 6.2% decline in industrial energy use
(0.2 quads) for direct process use.
In SAP 4.5, climate change was expected to increase demand for energy used for
water withdrawals and distribution; however, there was very limited information re-
ported in 2007. Almost no information was reported on energy use in transportation or
construction, as afected by climate. Impacts on existing fuel use other than electricity
were believed to be “small.”
