Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Chapter 2
Background
A. The Development Of The Report
1) OVERVIEW
This technical input report is a summary of the currently existing knowledge base
on climate change and energy supply and use, nested within a broader framing of
the issues and questions that need further atention in the longer run. It builds on
two previous assessments of implications of climate change for energy supply and
use: SAP 4.5, February 2008, and pages 53-60 of USGCRP,
Global Climate Change
Impacts in the United States
, June 2009, which were based largely on SAP 4.5. Its
emphasis is on new knowledge that has emerged since SAP 4.5 went into docu-
ment production in 2007. Also see a more recent report by DOE,
U.S. Energy Sector
Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather
, July 2013.
2) APPROACH
The report was developed by an author team, led by ORNL, under the oversight
of DOE, with signiicant input from a range of expert communities at the expert
workshop on November 29-30, 2011. Data, methods, and tools depended on avail-
able source materials and varied according to the topic and the resources that
have been invested in each particular topic. Judgments about report content, as -
sessment indings, and levels of conidence relect group consensus among the
report authors, considering comments from selected external reviewers.
3) NCA GUIDANCE
The NCA adopted a range of types of guidance for the technical input reports
covering eight topics that are priorities for the 2014 report: risk-based framing;
conidence characterization and communication; documentation, information
quality, and traceability; engagement, communications and evaluation; adap-
tation and mitigation; international context; scenarios; and sustained assess-
ment (www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/nca-activities/guidance).
The ability to respond to this guidance was limited by several factors. First, the
content of the report is based as much as possible on available sources of tech-
nical literature, which varied considerably in their treatment of such issues as
scenarios and conidence characterization. In most cases, in fact, the sources
do not refer to climate change scenarios at all. Second, the nature of much of the
