Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Aligning Priorities with
Societal Risks from Tsunamis
SUMMARY
This chapter reviews progress toward understanding the nation's tsunami risk, which is the
irst step in a comprehensive tsunami program. The knowledge of the hazards tsunamis pose
is evolving. The nation is just beginning to understand the populations and social assets that
tsunamis threaten, the readiness of individuals and communities to evacuate, and the losses of
life and property they may cause. Although much has been learned about the nation's tsunami
risk, the nation remains far from understanding enough of its tsunami risk to set priorities and
allocate resources for tsunami mitigation efforts based on risk.
The chapter evaluates progress and identiies opportunities for the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Pro-
gram (NTHMP) to advance the goal of hazard and evacuation mapping and a comprehensive
national risk assessment. Among other things, hazard modeling serves as the basis to produce
evacuation maps, which are a critical tool in educating and preparing the public. The commit-
tee concludes that it is unclear whether current evacuation maps are suficient for enabling
effective evacuations or preparing the public due to the absence of uniform quality standards,
evaluative metrics, or guidelines on what constitutes effective mapping approaches.
The advice, directed mainly at NTHMP partners and listed here in summary form, includes:
•
Completion of an initial, national tsunami risk assessment in the near term to inform
program prioritization.
•
Periodic reappraisal of tsunami sources and modeling codes, achieved in part through
workshops and peer review.
•
Greater consistency, across state boundaries, in the methods, criteria, and judgments
employed in modeling of tsunami inundation, achieved in part through collaboration
among federal and state partners and through external review of inundation maps.
•
Evaluations of the effectiveness of hazard maps, leading to standards that increase the
overall quality and consistency of these maps.
•
Recurring inventories of the number and kinds of people in tsunami hazard zones,
with special attention to high-risk groups including children, the inirm, and tourists.
•
Identiication of areas where successful evacuation from a tsunami would require
buildings or engineered berms.
