Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
and to provide a forum for discussing potential issues if a real event were to occur. Reviews
of the Paciic Peril 2006 exercise indicate the need for a regional campaign for citizen pre-
paredness programs (as opposed to fragmented state approaches) and a need for the federal
government to take a stronger role in facilitating partnerships across political boundaries (U.S.
Department of Transportation, 2006). These conclusions highlight the additional beneits from
regional exercises and drills in identifying gaps in coordination and improving coordination for
events that transcend state boundaries.
The impact of and learning from this and other exercises would be greatly improved if
independent social scientists were formally evaluating interagency communication patterns
during the exercises, as opposed to the current system of organizers and participants writing
up their own lessons learned. In addition, the committee cannot fully comment on the effec-
tiveness of these efforts because it could not ind any information on the costs and beneits of
conducting tsunami table-top exercises or post-exercise evaluations relative to pre-event con-
ditions. Also, learning from these exercises is likely temporary and limited to the participants
involved because the NTHMP currently lacks an inventory of past exercises or a repository of
lessons learned from each exercise.
In addition to exercises conducted by agencies responsible for managing evacuations,
some communities (e.g., Seaside, Yachats) have conducted voluntary evacuation drills where
the public practices actual evacuation behavior. A 2004 tsunami evacuation drill held in
Seaside, Oregon, was considered a success by organizers because of broad participation by the
community (e.g., residents, employees, and tourists), a successful evacuation (set at 30 minutes
by organizers) for all but 2 of the 436 participants, and more than 90 percent of participants
were comfortable with the procedures (Connor, 2005). Aside from Connor's 2005 summary of
the Seaside experience and media accounts, the committee found no NTHMP documenta-
tion or inventory of past tsunami evacuation drills. The committee was also unable to ind any
NTHMP guidelines for how to design or evaluate a drill that involves the public, and it did not
ind any documentation on the costs and beneits of these drills. Without evaluation or docu-
mentation of past drills, the committee cannot comment on whether there has been any long-
term impact on tsunami public education.
Based on evidence from drills run for different hazards (e.g., hurricanes, nuclear-power
plants), the committee does not endorse drills involving the public in most situations. For far-
ield tsunamis, evacuations will likely take place over several hours, and the public will be given
explicit instructions and guidance on where and how to evacuate. The media will provide con-
tinuous updates on conditions, and public safety oficers will be in the streets managing evacu-
ations. Therefore, the signiicant inancial resources it takes to stage these events and the social
and economic costs of disrupting a community (especially large communities like Honolulu,
Los Angeles, and Seattle) outweigh the beneits of having people practice orderly evacuations,
given that they will have hours to do so if an event occurs. The certainty of signiicant business
disruption and the potential for injuries or possibly fatalities in a large-scale evacuation exer-
cise preclude the need to stage public exercises.
For near-ield tsunamis, input from a few emergency managers suggests that voluntary
drills that involve the public practicing evacuation behavior are useful in promoting tsunami
