Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
in °C
Figure 2.5.
Projection of the global temperature anomalies for 2071-2100 compared to
1961-1990 for model CNRM-CERFACS on the left and model IPSL on the right, for
RCP 2.6 above and RCP 8.5 below (©Patrick Brockmann (LSCE/IPSL,
CEA/CNRS/UVSQ)) (see color section)
For the group of coupled models present in IPCC AR4, the
temperature rises by
1.7 [1.0-2.7]°C for scenario SRESB1 and by 4.0
[2.4-6.3]°C for scenario SRESA1F1 at the end of the 21st Century.
The trajectories are almost indiscernible until 2040 but nevertheless,
they deviate greatly depending on the scenario for the second half of
the century, underlining the importance of long-term necessary
measures for mitigation. In spite of the fairly large range between the
projections, the spatial behavior of the warming is very coherent for the
overall set of models: the warming intensifies depending on latitude; it
is weaker in equatorial regions and increases towards the poles;
moreover, it intensifies above large continental masses. Figure 2.5
shows the distribution of anomalies in temperature on the Earth's
surface, averaged between 2071 and 2100 minus the average
temperature for 1961 to 1990, for the two French models that are
included in the set of CMIP models used in the IPCC report, and for
