Information Technology Reference
In-Depth Information
But each of these new computers, if we are to take Bemer's reckoning
seriously, would require a support staff of at least thirty programmers.
Since almost all computer programs in this period were effectively custom
developed—the packaged software industry would only begin to emerge
in the late 1960s—every purchase of a computer required the corre-
sponding hire of new programming personnel. Even if we were to halve
Bemer's estimates, the predicted industry demand for computer program-
mers in 1960 would top eighty thousand.
In truth, no one really knew for certain exactly how many program-
mers would be required. Contemporary estimates ranged from fi fty thou-
sand to fi ve hundred thousand.
9
What was abundantly clear, however,
was that whatever the total demand for programmers might eventually
turn out to be, it would be impossible to satisfy using existing training
and hiring practices. By the mid-1960s the lack of availability of trained
computer programmers threatened to stifl e the adoption of computer
technology—a grave concern for manufacturers and employers alike.
Warnings of a “gap in programming support” caused by the ever-wors-
ening “population problem” pervade the industry literature in this
period.
10
In 1966, the personnel situation had degraded so badly that
Business Week
magazine declared it a “software crisis”—the fi rst appear-
ance of the crisis mentality that would soon come to dominate and defi ne
the entire industry.
11
Wayne State Conference
It did not take long after the invention of the fi rst electronic computers
for employers and manufacturers to become aware of the “many educa-
tional and manpower problems” associated with computerization. In
1954, leaders in industry, government, and education gathered at Wayne
State University for the Conference on Training Personnel for the
Computing Machine Field. The goal was to discuss what Elbert Little,
of the Wayne State Computational Laboratory, suggested was a “uni-
versal feeling” among industry leaders that there was “a defi nite short-
age” of technically trained people in the computer fi eld.
12
This shortage,
variously described by an all-star cast of scientists and executives from
General Motors, IBM, the RAND Corporation, Bell Telephone, Harvard
University, MIT, the Census Bureau, and the Offi ce of Naval Research,
as “acute,” “unprecedented,” “multiplying dramatically,” and “astound-
ing compared to the [available] facilities,” represented a grave threat to
the future of electronic computing. Already it was serious enough to
