Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
impossible to develop. Existing models do have
flaws, but they can be used provided their
limitations are understood, and despite their
inherent problems there is probably no better
way of studying environmental problems
involving the atmosphere.
The major tasks facing scientists involved in
the study of environmental problems is the
reduction of the uncertainty which still clouds
some of the issues, despite the ever-increasing
complexity and sophistication of current research
methods. Scientists can deal with some degree of
uncertainty, because they have been trained to
accept different levels of confidence in their
results. In contrast, planners, politicians and
policy-makers must have reliable estimates of the
impact of environmental change, if they are to
make the decisions necessary to minimize its
negative effects and maximize its positive effects.
As long as uncertainty exists, it is all too easy to
delay action.
This has been a particular problem in the
development of strategies for alleviating the
effects of global warming. Decision-makers are
unwilling to institute measures which will require
socio-economic and political sacrifices until they
are sure that global warming is a reality.
Researchers, unwilling to discard normal
scientific caution, cannot give that assurance. In
an attempt to find out what would be required
to resolve this dilemma, Henderson-Sellers (1990)
conducted a survey which included a question
about the minimum level of certainty required
before action should be initiated to reduce or
adapt to global warming. Respondents suggested
that a 50 per cent confidence level would be
sufficient. Although this is lower than most
researchers would accept, it remains difficult to
attain. It may take some time for the stand-off
between decision-makers and scientists to be
resolved, and as an interim measure some
researchers have advocated the development of
approaches which would alleviate the problem
if global warming occurred as projected, yet
would have no detrimental effects if it did not. A
wide-spectrum solution involving increased
energy efficiency is one possibility, for example.
Coupled with enhanced multidisciplinary
research which acknowledges the complexity of
the problem and the wide range of expertise
required to respond to it, this approach should
at least slow the change until the answer to the
uncertainty question can be determined.
Even as better models are developed, and
confidence in their results improves, there will
be surprises. Current models tend to concentrate
on the impact of human interference on the earth/
atmosphere system, and generally ignore the
possibility that natural variations in the system
will instigate change. Most assume that the
natural elements in the system will remain benign.
Evidence from the earth's past suggests that such
an assumption cannot be made. Events such as
the eruption of Mount Pinatubo serve as timely
reminders that natural events can augment or
diminish environmental changes initiated by
human activity. It is important, therefore, that
even in an increasingly anthropocentric world
every attempt be made to identify and understand
natural variations in the earth/atmosphere
system, both at present and in the past. Only then
will it be possible to place human interference in
its broader environmental context, and make
realistic projections of its future impact.
SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER READING
Buchholz, R., Marcus, A.A. and Post, J.E. (1992)
Managing Environmental Issues: A Casebook,
Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.
OECD (1991)
Climate Change: Evaluating the
Socio-Economic Impacts,
Paris: Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development.
World Resources Institute (1992)
World
Resources:
1992-93—A Guide to the Global
Environment,
New York: Oxford University
Press.
