Design Heuristics - Computers as Theatre - page 162

Hocking's notion of “consequentiality” is a sort of simulated butterfl y
effect, 4 a term coined to describe a central idea in chaos theory developed
by Edward Lorenz (1963). Lorenz's phrase “sensitive dependence on initial
conditions” means that a small change in one place (such as a butterfl y
fl apping its wings in Brazil) can cause much larger changes later on, and
that these changes are unpredictable (such as a tornado in Texas). 5 The but-
terfl y seems innocuous, but in retrospect it is highly consequential. In dra-
matic terms, such incidents may be discoveries, surprises, or even reversals,
all potent elements in the shape of dramatic action (see Figure 5.4).
Depending upon how the environments and NPCs are designed, the de-
signer can tip the scales toward consequentiality and shape dramatic action.
Figure 5.4 . An early incident (the butterfl y fl apping), although it may seem
inconsequential, can increase the probability of a highly dramatic event later on
(the tornado). If the butterfl y doesn't fl ap (or the player doesn't make that
particular choice), the plot may take other directions and shapes.
4. When I mentioned this to Clint, he laughed and said that his original title for Splinter Cell:
Chaos Theory was Splinter Cell: Butterfl y Effect . And here I thought I was being so smart.
5. At a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 1972, Philip
Merilees suggested a title for Lorenz's paper: “Does the fl ap of a butterfl y's wings in Brazil set
off a tornado in Texas?”