Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
production and predicted it to peak in 1970 (and ~2005 for the world).
Estimating the future oil supplies is complicated as new reserves are
discovered all the time, improvements are made to extraction technologies,
more oils being classified as proven resources, and due to fluctuating
demands for oil in the future.
Figure 1.5
Hubbert's original sketch of his curve on world oil production.
Source: Reprinted with permission from Smith (2012).
In the United States, we likely have already reached the peak production
rate for oil [or the Hubbert's peak] and are fast reaching the same for world
oil production (see
Fig. 1.5
); thereafter, we can expect escalating prices. As
prices rise, the recovery of heavy crudes in unconventional oil sand reserves
will become increasingly economical. As expected, price increases driven
by scarcity may result in both the lowering of the minimum acceptable
quality of product and exploitation of poor reservoirs hitherto considered
unprofitable to work on. Burning lower quality oil will result in emissions
with an adverse effect on the environment. Our addiction to oil in the
United States is such that we have seriously considered drilling for oil in the
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge off the Northern Alaskan coast, the largest
protected wilderness in the United States.
