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candidates despite a rather unsupportive mass media. The LDP
s loss in the
Tokyo Assembly election became one decisive factor in shaping the 2009
general election as it consolidated the theme of seiken k - tai. Before that, no
one imagined that it would really be possible to topple the hitherto all-
powerful LDP. However, after 10 years of partnership with the seemingly
unbeatable LDP, it now looked increasingly as if Komeito was stuck with a
'
'
(shizumu fune), as the LDP was now referred to. Was it the
beginning of a new era, ending with the once-powerful LDP having come to
depend so heavily on a so-called new religious group? This was quite a di
sinking ship
'
erent
situation to 10 years before when the coalition had begun.
Solidi
cation of the two-party system
The prediction for the long-ruling LDP looked bleak for the upcoming Lower
House election. Polls indicated that the mood of the nation was clearly
favouring Minshut - . At the time of the dissolution (21 July), the LDP had
303 Lower House members, Minshut - 112, and Komeito 31. There were talks
about Minshut - reversing its position with the LDP, which is indeed what
happened. Despite the LDP
s majority in the Lower House, since the 2007
Upper House election in which the then leader of Minshut - Ozawa Ichiro
masterly gained a majority together with the other opposition parties, the
LDP had had a di
'
cult time conducting Diet (the Japanese legislature) pro-
ceedings. Moreover, since negotiations about a grand coalition between the
LDP and Minshut - failed in 2007, the strategy of the main opposition party
under the leadership of Ozawa had been to oppose the government con-
sistently. This meant that as bills were passed in the Lower House, where the
LDP had the majority, they were rejected in the Upper House, where the
opposition parties had the majority, whereupon the bills would return and
pass through the Lower House by a two-thirds majority of the ruling parties.
By this time the opposition would accuse the government of ramming bills
through without su
cient debates taking place. These political tactics under-
mined the authority of the government, but more than that, it was the three
wavering prime ministers who were to follow the popular Koizumi Junichiro
that were the primary cause of the LDP
s unravelling. Not that it would ever
be easy to have followed the charismatic and decisive Koizumi, but all three
subsequent prime ministers
'
Abe Shinzo, Fukuda Yasuo and As - Taro
-
who had all initially been popular, seemed to lack the necessary leadership
skills and proved indecisive.
The general thrust of election discussions in the mass media after the
Tokyo Assembly election became whether voters would stick with the long-
ruling LDP or whether they would give Minshut - a chance to show that they
could be the revolutionary and historic change they so much emphasised. It
certainly would be an historic change to see the
-
first single opposition party
oust the LDP. Historic change referred to ushering in a new political culture
where it would become commonplace to replace an ine
ective or unpopular
 
 
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