GNSS Markets and Applications - Understanding GPS: Principles and Applications - page 636

shown in a study by ABI Research [4]. This is not surprising, as anytime one tries to
forecast 5 years ahead, a small change in assumed growth rate can lead to significant
differences five years out. At the time of the 1991 forecast, there was very little expe-
rience with GPS applications, the industry was infantile, and the future cost of GPS
receivers was almost impossible project. Additionally, SA was expected to remain in
place for the foreseeable future. Using a more likely growth rate of 20% as experi-
enced over the past several years, the 1996 figure of $2 billion could grow to $26 bil-
lion by 2010. The ABI Research study predicted global GPS equipment revenue of
$22 billion by 2008. Extrapolating the fairly constant growth rate in the data leads
to a $25 billion prediction for 2010. Beyond 2010, market predictions become even
more uncertain and dependent on GALILEO deployment. However, by 2018, ABI
Research expects a GNSS market of over $150 billion. Forecasts from European
organizations estimate 2018 product sales to be 150 billion Euros ($175 billion) and
the total sales of both products and services at 250 billion Euros ($290 billion). That
same publication predicts the GNSS market to approach 265 billion Euros ($310
billion) by 2020 with at least 3 billion chipsets in use [5, 6]. Another 2004 presenta-
tion at the International Satellite and Communications Conference (ISCe) in Long
Beach, California, predicted 2.5 billion GALILEO users by 2020. They also pre-
dicted that by 2012 users will opt for a GNSS receiver that will likely be a combined
GALILEO/GPS receiver [7]. What all this conflicting data indicates is that it is very
difficult to predict the GNSS market 5 years ahead with any confidence of certainty,
let alone to do it when GALILEO is included. The dollar/Euro conversion factor (1.2
used herein) itself could vary 20% or more. However, all forecasts agree that the
GNSS market will be both large and growing as the myriad of emerging
applications, with some still in a conceptual stage, come to fruition.
The likely future of GPS in the United States is fairly clear as the modernization
program is underway and the GPS III architecture is being defined. New GPS capa-
bilities such as L5 have been confidently factored into market projections, but how
much credence should one put into 2004 projections of a GALILEO market that
won't even begin to emerge until at least 4 or 5 years from now? One way to
approach this is to understand just why GALILEO is being developed, when GPS
devoid of user charges is already so imbued in the world. First, it's a question of
European sovereignty—GPS is developed and operated by the U.S. Department of
Defense with input from the U.S. Department of Transportation, whereas
GALILEO is run by a strictly civil organization. Second, GPS does not guarantee ser-
vice or take responsibility or liability for any damages, while GALILEO will provide
a certified service. Having their own system provides some political influence, espe-
cially in areas such as air transportation and potential military exploitation. And
probably the most important reason is that GALILEO will improve the level of
European space technology and enable European industry to be a more effective
competitor in the world GNSS marketplace.
Defining and quantifying a market segment for GNSS services is no less a chal-
lenge. Consider services such as developing receivers for the government, designing
filtering software in order to integrate GPS with other sensors in a commercial or
military aircraft, testing the products, installing and integrating them into vehicles
and aircraft, and services that rely on GPS information like surveying. Classic defini-
tions of the GPS market have first split the market into military and commercial (or