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2-stars (subgraphs consisting of a node with two spokes—so a node
with degree 3 has three 2-stars associated to it) given the number of
nodes, and have these act as variables z i of your model, and then tweak
the associated coefficients θ i to get them tuned to a certain type of
behavior you observe or wish to simulate. If z 1 refers to the number
of triangles, then a positive value for θ 1 would indicate a tendency
toward a larger number of triangles, for example.
Additional graph statistics that have been introduced include k -stars
(subgraphs consisting of a node with k spokes—so a node with degree
k + 1 has k + 1 k -stars associated with it), degree, or alternating k -
stars , an aggregation statistics on the number of k -stars for various k .
Let's give you an idea of what an ERGM might look like formula-wise:
1
κ
Pr Y = y =
θ 1 z 1 y + θ 2 z 2 y + θ 3 z 3 y
Here we're saying that the probability of observing one particular re‐
alization of a random graph or network, Y , is a function of the graph
statistics or properties, which we just described as denoted by z i .
In this framework, a Bernoulli network is a special case of an ERGM,
where we only have one variable corresponding to number of edges.
Inference for ERGMs
Ideally—though in some cases unrealistic in practice—one could ob‐
serve a sample of several networks, Y 1 , ..., Y n , each represented by their
adjacency matrices, say for a fixed number N of nodes.
Given those networks, we could model them as independent and
identically distributed observations from the same probability model.
We could then make inferences about the parameters of that model.
As a first example, if we fix a Bernoulli network, which is specified by
the probability p of the existence of any given edge, we can calculate
the likelihood of any of our sample networks having come from that
Bernoulli network as
D d i
p d i
n
L =∏ i
1− p
where d i is the number of observed edges in the i th network and D is
the total number of dyads in the network, as earlier. Then we can back
out an estimator for p as follows:
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