Predicting the Weather-Dependent Collision Risk for Birds at Wind Farms - Wind and Wildlife - page 17

Fig. 8 Response curves of the GAMM for the red kite at Rødsand 2 displaying the relationship
between the flight altitude and predictor variables. The values of the environmental predictors are
shown on the X-axis and the probability on the Y-axis in logit scale. The degree of smoothing is
indicated in the title of the Y-axis. The shaded areas and the dotted lines show the 95 % Bayesian
confidence intervals

Table 5 Significance and t- and F-values for the fixed parametric (wind directions and survey year)
and smooth terms included in the GAMM for the red kite

t-value p-value

Parametric Direction 45° −1.274 0.20

Direction 90° −6.226 <0.01

Direction 135° −3.035 <0.01

Direction 180° −5.709 <0.01

Direction 225° −4.391 <0.01

Direction 270° −2.188 0.03

Direction 315° 1.528 0.13

Year 2011 0.910 0.36

Smooth F-value p-value

Dist. to land 33.05 <0.01

Wind speed 315.74 <0.01

Humidity 101.93 <0.01

Temperature 13.21 <0.01

R-sq. (adj) 0.41
Spearman's Rho 0.68
Sample size 1,313
The model was evaluated by fitting the model on 70 % and testing the predictive accuracy on 30 %
by estimating Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (Rho) between observed and predicted
altitudes. Adjusted R 2 value is given as an indication of variance explained by the model