Graphics Reference
In-Depth Information
Wegaininsightintotheshortcomingsofthemodelbyperforminggraphicalmodel
checks. Graphs are most oten drawn in order to compare data with an implicit ref-
erence distribution (e.g., Poisson model for rootograms, independence-with-mean-
zero for residual plots, or normality for quantile-quantile plots), but we would also
include more general comparisons; for example, a time series plot is implicitly com-
pared to a constant line. In Bayesian data analysis, the reference distribution can be
formally obtained by computing the replication distribution of the observables; the
observed quantities can be plotted against draws from the replication distribution to
comparethefitofthemodel.
We aim to make graphical displays an integrated and automatic part of data anal-
ysis. Standardized graphical tests must be developed, and these should be routinely
generatedbythemodelingandmodel-fittingenvironment.
Acknowledgement.
WethankMattSalganikforcollaborationwiththesocialnetworksproject,
and the National Science Foundation for financial support.
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