Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
viticultural operations. For example, enhanced skill-selection of AR4 GCMs has
produced more refined 2050 modelling for south eastern Australia (Pitman and Per-
kins
2008
).
Some changes in viticultural phenological indicators have already been observed
in response to recent climate changes. These include shifts in harvest dates in France
(Schultz and Jones
2010
), and in ripening profiles in Australia (Webb et al.
2011
).
Summary of Potential Impacts
Many of the general impacts of climate change would be common across all agri-
cultural industries, including possible water deficits, heat stress, changed growing
seasons and extreme effects such as hail, flooding and extended drought. The spe-
cific requirements of viticulture and the production of wine make it likely that wine
quality will be influenced greatly by climate change (Jones et al.
2005
), and include:
• changes in wine styles due to hotter conditions
• in extreme cases some varieties may become commercial unviable due to mis-
matching of variety and environmental conditions (terroir).
• direct heat stress, including increased leaf temperature, respiration shutdown,
loss of crop
• impacts on grapevine phenology, eg. timing of bud burst, flowering, veraison,
harvest.
• shortened growing seasons and earlier maturity (potential stylistic impacts)
• undesirable sensory characters in the grapes
• increased fire risk
• smoke taint from nearby fires
• changes in water availability
• increased need for irrigation inputs, hence increased cost of production
• increased risk of new suite of pests, diseases and weeds
Adaptation Solutions
Viticulture is perennial and based around significant infrastructure such as trellising
and irrigation. These restrictions govern long term climate change adaptation, and
future vineyard establishment must now factor in projected changes in climate over
the lifetime of the business. Current viticultural operations are usually well attuned
to dealing with climatic variability (vintage conditions). Therefore adaptation to
normal climate variability is a good indicator of how future vineyards will fare, al-
though ultimately some critical threshold will likely be exceeded, which in the wine
industry could be viticultural (eg. heat stress, water restrictions, pests and disease,
reduced yields etc.), or oenological (eg. Shorter, hotter growing season leading to
undesirable stylistic changes).
