Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
EKC and LDCs
One of the key issues that the EKC has raised is whether the same pattern of growth versus
environmental impact can be replicated by the now poor countries in the future. Is the
policy rami
cation for poor countries that they should grow themselves out of environ-
mental problems rather than implementing stricter regulation now? Recent research has
engaged with these important questions.
Cole and Neumayer (2005) examine the implications of the EKC for pollution trends
in LDCs. They
fi
rst review the robustness of the EKC critique, suggesting that the EKC
may be more robust than some studies have claimed. Then they explore whether LDCs
are likely to follow the compositional changes that developed countries have followed.
They demonstrate evidence that the emissions reductions in now rich countries are in part
due to export of pollution-intensive domestic production to LDCs, thus suggesting that
current poor countries will not be able to replicate this experience. They then examine how
long it will take di
fi
erent regions in the developing world to reach EKC turning points
according to three economic growth projections and the most widely cited EKC studies.
They come to the unsettling conclusions that environmental quality is predicted to get
worse for many years to come, even under high economic growth scenarios. Cole and
Neumayer (2005) contribute to the literature by explicitly considering whether LDCs can
expect to follow an EKC or when they can expect to experience an improvement in envi-
ronmental quality. Also, while some studies have predicted future global emission trajec-
tories of certain air pollutants, no analysis had been undertaken at the regional level.
In Dasgupta et al.'s (2002) critical review of the EKC they discuss four di
ff
erent view-
points regarding the EKC relationship. First is the view that pollution rises to a horizontal
line of maximum emissions as globalization forces a 'race to the bottom' in environmental
standards. Second, in a similar pessimistic outlook, some believe that environmental
impacts will continue to increase as 'new toxics', such as CO
2
emissions and carcinogens,
replace traditional pollutants that may have exhibited an inverted U-shaped curve. Third is
the conventional EKC, and fourth is the 'revised EKC' where pollution begins falling at
lower income levels. Dasgupta et al. remain optimistic (with caveats) that the EKC is low-
ering and
ff
attening in LDCs through increased formal and informal regulation.
However, we cannot take for granted that LDCs will experience an increased demand
for environmental regulations. We need to consider what mechanisms are needed to trans-
late society's preferences into policy-making. For example, if the technique e
fl
ect is
emphasized through policy, then LDCs may be able to tunnel through the EKC, as the
technology is already there. However, many criticisms of the EKC suggest that estimated
turning points may not be indicative of expected turning points for developing countries,
given that most such turning points have been estimated using only OECD data.
Furthermore, there are other reasons why moving up the
ff
rst part of the EKC curve
could lead to very unpleasant implications for LDCs. What if environmental thresholds
or irreversible environmental degradation occurs? Neumayer (2003b, p. 88) cautions that
there are no guarantees that the external and internal conditions of low-income countries
are now the same as those of high-income countries at the time of their development.
fi
Conclusions
This chapter has critically reviewed the theoretical and empirical literature on the EKC.
Explanations for the inverted U-shaped relationship between income and environmental
