Systems Informatics and Analysis - Engineering and Science of Biomass Feedstock Production and Provision - page 215

The Biomass Futures project has been initiated by the European Union (EU) to
support policy decisions and evaluate the feasibility of the bioenergy targets [ 113 ]
( http://www.biomassfutures.eu/index.php ). One of the major limitations for
achieving these tasks has been the limited availability of validated, up-to-date, and
quantitative information pertaining to the supply and demand of biomass. The proj-
ect, therefore, has taken a comprehensive model-based approach to develop tailored
information packages that can be used by policy makers at the EU or national level.
Some of the packages that have been developed include demand analysis, availabil-
ity and supply analysis, energy modeling, and sustainability [ 114 , 115 ]. Each of
these packages involves the development of a quantitative model, either a generic
model or a purely data-based model.

8.3.4.2 Life-Cycle Impact Assessment Models

Understanding the life-cycle impacts of the biofuel value chain, including biomass
production, has also been under focus. A number of studies have recently indicated
that the renewability of biofuels, especially the fi rst-generation biofuels, may
depend signifi cantly on whether or not indirect impacts such as land use change,
fertilizer production, and agricultural runoff are considered [ 116 ]. The debate, how-
ever, is still ongoing [ 117 ], necessitating a rigorous system-level analysis. The life-
cycle impact assessment models are conceptually simple, because the focus is on
executing the proper accounting of the inputs and outputs from the system.
Therefore, many studies have used simple modeling platforms such as Microsoft
Excel ® . The collection and management of data are very important activities, which
make the role of informatics more important.
GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in
Transportation) is a well-known spreadsheet-based model developed by the Center
for Transportation Research of Argonne National Laboratory in the USA [ 118 ,
119 ]. In addition to the GHG emissions associated with various transportation alter-
natives, the model also calculates the emissions of other critical air pollutants such
as NOx, VOC (volatile organic carbon), methane, and particulate matter. GREET
includes fuel-cycle and vehicle-cycle models, thereby covering the complete life
cycle of fuel production and utilization. It can compare conventional fossil fuels
with renewable alternatives such as ethanol, biodiesel, and electricity (for battery-
powered vehicles). The model caters for the production of ethanol from corn, woody
biomass, herbaceous biomass, corn stover, and sugar cane. The interface to the
model is a Microsoft Excel ® -based program that allows the user to defi ne scenarios
through selections and modify parameter values. The basic modeling framework
has been extended to include a stochastic modeling capability [ 120 ].
Scown et al. [ 121 ] recently reported the life-cycle GHG implications of different
scenarios of biofuel production from Miscanthus × giganteus to achieve the 2020
target for the USA. They modeled six different scenarios that captured different
possibilities of land allocation for growing Miscanthus. Their results showed that
the net carbon emission or sequestration during Miscanthus cultivation as well as
the GHG offset credits for selling electricity to the grid were the two most important