Technical and Economic Aspects of Gridconnected Solar Photovoltaics in Brazil - Implementing Environmental and Resource Management - page 44

IPCC factors of Global Warming Potential at 100 years horizon (1 for CO 2 , 21 for
CH 4 , 310 for N 2 O), the corresponding GWP of that 1 GJ would sum up to 22.39
kgCO 2 -eq. Thus the resulting rate (dividing by 278 kWh) would be about 80.5
gCO 2 -eq/kWh.
6.2.3 The Brazilian Government's Strategic Energy Plan
In June 2007, the Brazilian Energy Research Corporation (EPE Empresa de Pes-
quisa Energética, a governmental agency subsidiary of the Brazilian Ministry of
Mines and Energy) made public the final report of the “Plano Nacional de Energia
2030” (National Energy Plan 2030). This was claimed to be the first study of inte-
grated energy resource planning undertaken by the Brazilian government. In the
report of the strategic plan it is explained how the expected demand, in each of
four scenarios considered, could be covered using different energy sources split
into the following categories: Oil and oil-derived, Natural gas, Mineral coal,
Wood and Vegetal coal, Sugarcane products, Biodiesel, Electricity, and others;
and the possible contribution of each of them to the final consumption in the years
2010, 2020, and 2030 is determined for each scenario (EPE 2007). But the sce-
nario that is finally accredited as more probable is Scenario B1 (corresponding to
an expected average annual growth rate of Brazil's GDP of 4.1%), therefore the
final recommended energy strategy is based on it. From that point on, the report
goes into describing the situation in 2005 and justifying the demand evolution ex-
pected for each main energy source considered for the future supply. If all predic-
tions were accomplished, the resulting energy mix in 2030 would be: 29% oil and
derived; 16% natural gas; 7% coal and derived; 3% nuclear; 14% hydroelectricity
and electricity imports; 6% wood and vegetal coal; 16% sugarcane derived; and
7% other renewables. Regarding electricity, the increase in supply capacity would
rely mainly on new hydroelectric and gas power plants, together with increases in
coal, nuclear, small hydro, biomass combustion and wind; and as big infrastruc-
tural advances unfold, the West of Brazil should be connected to the main electric
grid (EPE 2007).
6.2.4 Solar Photovoltaic Potential in Brazil
Over the last decade there has been an effort, originally headed by technical ex-
perts associated with the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
and later joined by several other national and international institutions, to “map”
the power generation potential of solar and wind resources in the LAC (Latin
America and the Caribbean) nations considered likely to offer good potential.
NREL produced geo-referenced solar and wind power potential maps, which were
later used in the SWERA project (“Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assess-
ment”) sponsored by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and
the Global Environment Facility (GEF) (Ripley 2006). In recent years, the Euro-
pean Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) and Greenpeace have published