Review of Future Energy Supply and Targets for Climate Change: The Idea of Ecosystem Services - Implementing Environmental and Resource Management - page 123

12.2 Global Climate Change Projections
According to the World Energy Outlook, future scenarios project that the rise in
the concentration of greenhouse gasses will double in the atmosphere by the end
of the century (IEA 2008). This is expected to entail an eventual global average
temperature increase of up to 6 degree Celsius (IEA 2008). The trend points to a
continuing growth in emission of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases that greatly
contribute to global climate change. Global energy-related CO 2 equivalent emis-
sion is projected to rise from 28 billion tonnes in 2006 to 41 billion tonnes in 2030
projections, showing an increase of 45%. This 2030 projection is only 1billion
tonne lower than that projected in the 2007 Outlook (IEA 2008), even though the
2007 Outlook assumed a scenario with higher relative energy prices and slightly
lower growth in world GDP.
World greenhouse gas emissions, including non-energy CO 2 and all other gases
are projected to grow from 44 billion tonnes CO 2 equivalent in 2005 to 60 billion
tonnes CO 2 equivalent in 2030, an increase of 35% over 2005 (Wall 2008). How-
ever, in a growth scenario with a slightly faster growing global GDP, it is pre-
dicted that energy demand will rise by 6% and CO 2 emission by 7% (Ibid.). Also,
the trend predicts a continued growth in global energy-related emission equiva-
lents from 27 billion tonnes in 2005 to 42 billions tonnes in 2030, a rise of 57%
(IEA 2008). Therefore new policy instruments need to promote mitigation meas-
ures like the development of ecosystem services such as conservation banking for
restoration of ecosystems. The concept of conservation banking was introduced in
the United States (Shwartz 2000) and a similar approach should be adapted and
scaled-up where possible. Conservation banking is concept of giving monetary
value and creating a trade system for ecosystem service, which should be applied
more widely to include areas beyond wetlands, as applied in the US. This could
target any ecosystem restoration activities to maintain, and safeguard and secure
ecosystem services that regulate and control the environment. But however, pre-
serving and conserving ecosystem services requires that their role as protecting the
environment have to be understood and appropriate values be given to them
(Slootweg and Beukering 2008; Farber et al. 2002), although it is considered that
nature offers them free of charge. For instance they play an importance role in the
reduction of emission gases to fight climate change. Plants and forest function as
regulatory service of climate through sequestration of emission gases through the
process of photosynthesis, where photosynthetic organisms convert emission
gases and water into sugar and other organic compounds using solar energy (Kast-
ing 1998). But these uptakes of emission are not constant throughout the lifespan
of trees, which mean they have to be constantly maintained and developed. There-
fore afforestation and reforestation are essential for maintaining and developing
regulatory ecosystem services.