Healthy Cities: Old and New Solutions - Theme Cities: Solutions for Urban Problems - page 481

parents, a potential general health reversal unknown in the last century, except in
exceptional circumstances such as war. Among the varied problems, eight in par-
ticular, demand solutions through new medical advances and care and some of these
may be influenced by the increasing urbanization trends.

13﻽4﻽2﻽1 The Rise of Chronic Diseases

Table 13.1 shows that the WHO estimates of the top twenty reasons for the direct
causes of mortality in 2015 and 2030 is no longer dominated by the communicable
diseases that so devastated the populations of cities especially in the past; most seem
to have been conquered. Today the majority of the deaths come from so-called chron-
ic diseases, linked to organ failures, such as heart attacks and strokes, to cancers of
various types, and diabetes. These diseases now account for 35 million deaths a year

Table 13.1 Estimated changes in mortalities: top 20 causes (Source: Revised from tables in World
Health Organization 2012a)
2015 Rank of causes of death Numbers (%) 2030 Numbers (%) Rank

1. Ischaemic heart disease 7.59 m (13.2 %) 9.25 m (13.2 %) 1

2. Stroke 6.70 m (11.7 %) 8.58 m (12.2 %) 2

3. Lower respiratory infections 3.22 m (5.6 %) 3.54 m (5.0 %) 4

4. Chronic pulmonary disease 3.22 m (5.6 %) 4.57 m (6.5 %) 3

5. Diarrhoeal diseases 1.81 m (3.2 %) 1.62 m (2.3 %) 9 down

6. HIV/AIDS 1.67 m (2.9 %) 1.79 m (2.6 %) 8

7. Trachea, bronchus, lung cancers 1.64 m (2.9 %) 2.41 m (3.4 %) 6

8﻽ Diabetes mellitus 1﻽56 m (2﻽7 %) 2﻽46 m (3﻽5 %) 5 up

9. Road injury 1.42 m (2.5 %) 1.86 m (2.6 %) 7

10. Heart disease (hypertensive) 1.14 m (2.0 %) 1.46 m (2.1 %) 10

11. Preterm birth complications 1.13 m (2.0 %) 0.92 m (1.3 %) 19 down

12. Cirrhosis of liver 1.03 m (1.8 %) 1.2 m (1.7 %) 11

13. Tuberculosis 0.89 m (1.5 %)

a

Down

14 Kidney diseases 0.87 m (1.5 %) 1.15 m (1.6 %) 13

15. Self-harm 0.84 m (1.5 %) 1.01 m (1.4 %) 16

16﻽ Liver cancer 0﻽83 m (1﻽4 %) 1﻽19 m (1﻽7 %) 12 Up

17﻽ Stomach cancer 0﻽80 m (1﻽4 %) 1﻽14 m (1﻽6 %) 14 Up

18. Birth asphyxia-traumas 0.77 m (1.3 %)

a

Down

19﻽ Colon, rectum cancers 0﻽75 m (1﻽3 %) 1﻽08 m (1﻽5 %) 15 Up

20﻽ Falls 0﻽72 m (1﻽2 %) 0﻽98 m (1﻽4 %) 17 Up

Dementias (Alzheimer's etc) 0﻽97 m (1﻽4 %) 18 Up

Breast cancers 0﻽81 m (1﻽1 %) 20 Up

Italics show diseases estimated to decrease by over two rank: 9 down
Bold print. 2030 rank estimated to increase by over two grades: 18 up
a Diseases that are estimated to drop out of the top 20