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more complex approach is by changing the vehicle engine, either in halfway form
by hybrid cars that have both internal combustion and also electric motors, or by
electric-only vehicles. Optimists believe that these two types of car will soon lead to
a revolution in car types, with resultant fuel reduction and lower emissions. But the
extra price of these cars, due to the still high costs of the electric motors, has meant
that their growth is still limited, despite government subsidies in many countries,
and lower running costs. Nevertheless most major car companies have versions of
these vehicles. The international organization of car manufacturers has calculated
that there were 84 million passenger and commercial vehicles produced in the world
in 2012, a substantial increase from the 59 million in 2002 (OICA, 2012 ). But elec-
tric cars only accounted for 0.02 % of the total, and hybrid cars another 5 %, by
the end of 2012. Hopefully improved electric batteries will increase the range of
these vehicles beyond the current 150 km level, while the addition of more electric
changing stations, will also improve their numbers and use. But despite the addi-
tion of such cars to the vehicle fleet it is difficult to see these cars as anything more
than a minor, although still needed addition to the world's vehicle fleet during the
next two decades at current rates of progress—an evolutionally not revolutionary
change—although they may have more localized impacts within large cities where
small car-sharing schemes are emerging. However the recent success of the Tesla
Model S cars which uses standard lithium-ion cells rather than the batteries used by
other companies which are specially designed, heavier and almost twice as costly as
the Tesla approach is worth noting. Also in 2014 Tesla announced plans to develop
a major battery factory with an eventual 500,000 units capacity in the USA, which it
maintains will reduce costs by a further 30 % due to returns to scale, and could bring
the cost of electric cars down to competitive levels without the need for subsidies,
which could lead to a major increase in electric cars.
Unless the cost and size of batteries decreases rapidly, the growth of this type of
vehicle may suffer because of the probable savings from next generation of clean
diesel engines. Current diesels are a third more efficient than petrol engines and the
most fuel efficient European car, the Volkwagen Polo with a 1.4 L diesel engine, has
a better fuel consumption than the Toyota Prius hybrid at 3.8 L /100 km, compared
to 4.3 L 100 km (TE 2013c ). The next generation diesels from 2014 will be lighter
because of the use of aluminium, not heavy iron engine blocks, with lower compres-
sion ratios and more complete combustion, which is projected to deliver 20 % better
fuel efficiency and lower emissions. This may reduce current criticism that diesels
produce higher pollution levels. In an experimental context, cars powered by solar
cells do exist, as do a few solar planes, but the number of the cells needed in these
vehicles mean that passenger space is extremely limited, so their ability to alter the
transport system seems decades away. A more promising trend lies in the develop-
ment of fuel-cell vehicles, which unlike the electricity carried in lithium-ion batter-
ies, makes electricity through a chemical reaction between hydrogen, carried as a
fuel, and oxygen, with only water vapour as a by-product. Again the development of
such cars will take decades to charge the current transport system, but the technol-
ogy is sufficiently advanced for Toyota, Hyundai and Honda to announce that they
will be selling sedans using hydrogen power in 2015. Details of prices and volumes
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