Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
shale formations that have very small pores. Certainly there are still many worries
about the negatives associated with this process, such as contamination of water
supplies, even fear of earthquakes in some unstable areas. Fracking also requires
far more wells, as many as 40 times more in any area to maintain production com-
pared to traditional oil wells, as they cannot draw from such a wide area as from
traditional oil-bearing rocks, so they decline as much as five times more quickly a
year (TE
2014b
). These problems have led many jurisdictions to ban the procedure.
But despite these negative features these new techniques have drastically altered the
ability to produce more of the two major fossil fuels. Indeed it is estimated that by
the end of this decade the U.S.A. will be producing close to 9.6 million barrels of
oil per year—compared to under 5 million in 2008—a level last reached in the early
1970s. However conventional oil will only be around 40 % of this total.
The ability to transport more gas from underdeveloped gas fields via liquefied
natural gas (LNG) ships is also increasing its availability and decreasing its price to
many energy-deficient countries, although the costs of transport mean that natural
gas prices in Japan in 2013 were four times higher than in America. What is impor-
tant about this new source of natural gas for cities is its cost advantage over other
sources, which mean that it is being used in more and more power stations and
vehicles, with the additional advantage of being less polluting than other sources,
leading to lower pollution levels. Indeed on current trends the use of more natural
gas in power generation could mean that by 2020 it could be providing a third of
American electricity, compared to a fifth in 2008 (TE
2013b
).
The development of major new oil reserves, such as the deep-water oil discov-
eries off the coast of Brazil and new discoveries in many parts of the world seem
to indicate increasing oil supplies for the next few decades at least (IEA
2013
). So
the case for immediate reductions in fossil fuel use, given the fact that the Peak
Oil theory of decreasing oil supply and increased cost has not occurred, has been
weakened. But it not been destroyed. Even the new sources of oil and gas only
extend the horizon of relatively cheap fossil fuels for a few decades. Ultimately
they
are
finite, while there remain the negative effects of using these sources. This
means that the increasing use of gas will reduce emissions and could provide the
world with a 'breathing space' to implement more rigorous renewable energy and
conservation policies.
Table
5.2
provides examples of the way that four countries (Brazil, Denmark,
Germany and Iceland) have created progressive solutions to their development of
renewable energy sources, initially stimulated by the OPEC oil embargo in 1973-
1974 and the subsequent rise in the cost of oil and later by environmental concerns.
These examples provide grounds for real optimism in the progress to greater sus-
tainability and can be extended by examples from other countries. Yet progress
must not be measured only in new energy output and lower pollution; there are other
advantages of renewable energy. For example, there are increasing tax returns from
the growth of renewable energy sites and many new jobs in the expanding renew-
able energy sector, in both innovation and production of renewables. Also solar
panels and wind turbines are often located in rural areas where unemployment lev-
els have often been high. However we must be cautious. Although a small country
like Denmark and a large prosperous one such as Germany are showing substantial
shifts in energy supplies, the absolute extent of the change in most other countries
