Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
increasing use of natural gas only emits, on average, half the pollutants of coal. Yet
it must be admitted that there are still huge coal deposits in the world, and it is still
cheaper to use than other fossil fuels, although externality costs are rarely taken into
account, so many countries will be tempted to use such sources. Others argue that
the case for drastically reducing the use of oil in energy production is enhanced be-
cause it is used for many other things in the modern world, so burning such a scarce
resource is wasteful. More tellingly, advocates of fossil fuel use argue these supplies
are not as finite as advocates of sustainable development suggest, so that 'business
as usual' can be practised. Certainly coal is still present in abundance, though great-
er use of coal will mean far more pollution and carbon dioxide emissions, unless
major investment is made in carbon reduction or sequestration processes
.
The case
of oil is far more problematic, for it has been argued that the stage of Peak Oil will
soon be upon us. This concept was developed by Hubbert (
1962
) to predict that US
oil supplies would reach a peak, decline and become more expensive. Although its
prediction was subsequently accurate in the U.S.A. for a few decades, its applica-
tion to the world scale and to current conditions is far more problematic. In the long
term there are limited supplies of oil in the world and the newly discovered sources
will be more expensive to develop and operate. But there is no consensus about
when, or if, this Peak Oil stage will occur, with lower production levels and making
transport more expensive. Early advocates of the idea placed it in the early parts of
the second decade of this century, whereas more cautious commentators place it 15
to 30 years away.
Many disagree with the Peak Oil scenario, arguing that the increasing demand
for energy will be met by the discovery of new sources of the fossil fuels, as in the
past, which we should continue to use since they are cheaper and more flexible in
their use than available renewable energy sources. Until recently even the most
optimistic oil supply advocates used to admit that new sources will only be found in
areas that are unstable politically, or in areas far more difficult to exploit, such as in
the Arctic or in deep-sea locations, which will raise extraction costs and hence oil
prices, as well as running the risks of environmental damage. This view was given
support by the Deepwater Horizon explosion and subsequent oil spill in the Gulf of
Mexico 2011, which was made worse because of the weeks it took to cap the well,
making it the largest marine spill of 5 million barrels in history. By mid-2013 BP
had already paid out an estimated $ 42.2 billion in environmental clean-up costs,
compensation to fishing and tourism in the area, and fines to the U.S. government.
Yet despite these negative features, the anti-Peak Oil and 'business as usual en-
ergy approach' seems to have gained support in recent years—at least for the next
few decades—given enormous increases in newly discovered, or rather exploitable,
sources of natural gas since 2008. This has helped gas prices to plummet to a 16
year low in the U.S.A. by 2012, to $ 4 per million BTU (British Thermal Units).
Together with the associated release of light oil and other condensates from exten-
sive shale beds it means that the United States will again became the world's biggest
oil producer in 2014. Much of this increase comes from the recent development
of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and then horizontal drilling procedures—which
involve pumping water, sand and chemicals under pressure to fracture shale beds—
releasing gas and oil that would otherwise would not be able to flow from the tight
