Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 5.1
World energy sources and proportions: 1980, 2011, 2035. (Source: Calculated from
data in World Energy Outlook, 2013, p. 71.)
1
2
3
4
5
6
Energy sources
% 1980
% 2011
% Estimates a)
Current policies
For 2035 b)
New policies
Based on: c)
450 scenario
Coal
24.9
28.9
29.1
25.5
17.0
Oil
42.9
31.4
27.2
26.8
24.0
Natural gas
17.1
21.3
23.4
23.7
22.5
Nuclear
2.6
5.2
5.5
6.4
10.2
Hydro
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.7
Biomass-Waste
10.4
9.9
9.3
10.6
14.8
Other renewables
0.2
1.0
2.8
4.1
7.8
(All Renewables)
12.7
13.2
14.6
17.6
26.2
Fossil fuel share
81.6
79.7
76.0
63.5
Total Mtoe
7219
13,070
18, 646
17,387
14,908
Increases over 1980
81.1
Increases over 2011
+ 42.6
+ 33.0
+ 14.1
CO
2
emissions (Gt)
31.2
43.1
37.2
21.6
Key: a) Current Policies. Projections based on current policies
b) New Polices. Projections based on policies already proposed by governments up to 2013
c) 450 Scenario. Assumes new policies will lessen warming to + 2 C % over pre-industrial levels
by not allowing CO
2
levels to reach 450 ppm, the stage the IPCC panel predicts that major climate
change effects could take effect
current policies there will be changes in the proportions of each fossil fuel energy
source to the total output, with natural gas substantially increasing its proportion,
with coal at a lower increase, but with a decrease in the use of oil for energy genera-
tion. A second important point about Table
5.1
is that it shows that almost 80 % of
energy supplies at a world level still come from the three main fossil fuel sources of
oil, coal and gas, which is not much of a decline from the 84.9 % in 1980. Neverthe-
less, this expected growth in energy output and the probable continued dominance
of three sources shows the scale of the problem of replacing these fossil fuels with
renewable energy sources. However it must be remembered that this table only
deals with world figures; individual countries vary considerably in their mix of
energy sources. So despite many signs of progress in the development of renew-
able energy sources, Table
5.1
shows such sources are only estimated to account
for 13 % of the world total at the present rising to 14.6 % in 2035
if
current policies
continue. Also it is worth noting that at least half of this current renewable energy
portion is mainly biomass burning, especially wood, that has its own pollution prob-
lems, especially when used in household fires, let alone the potential destruction
of forests to produce the resource. Although hydro-electric power is an important
renewable source in some countries and regions, it only accounts for just over 2.3 %
of total world energy supply. Moreover, in world terms, nuclear power, which in the
1960s was promoted as the major new energy source, accounts for only 5.2 % of the
