Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
Chapter 1
Introduction
Wayne KD Davies
11
The Changing Urban Context
We are living through one of the greatest of transformations of our habitat that the
world has ever experienced. The driving force of the transformation is the inexo-
rable growth of the world population, which the latest United Nations urbanization
report calculates to have increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 7.2 billion by 2013
(United Nations
2013
). It will probably reach 8.1 billion and 9.6 billion in 2025
and 2050 respectively, based on the U.N.'s middle range estimates that assume the
recent decline in fertility rates continues. By 2007 urban centres became the places
where most people in the world lived, when the urban proportion of the total world
population reached over 50 % for the first time in human history—although it must
be remembered the U.N. uses the urban definitions of the various countries, which
do vary, so the figure is only approximate. Of course, this urban majority did occur
earlier in particular parts of the world. For example, the 1851 census showed that
England and Wales had become the first area to have more urban than rural people.
In subsequent decades country after country reached the 50 % urban threshold; and
increasingly in the developed world this proportion often reaches over 75 %, for
many people living in what are administratively rural areas are actually functionally
connected to their nearest city through commuting and other flows. Yet in most of
the developing countries there are still more rural than urban dwellers, although this
balance is changing very rapidly.
All these changes mean that the percentage of the world population living in
urban areas has increased from 29.4 % in 1950 to 54 % in 2014, reaching an esti-
mated 66 % by 2050 (United Nations 2014). The developed world will have urban
proportions rising from the current average of 78 to 86 % at that date, while the less
developed world will show increases from the current 47 % urban to 64 % of the
