SOME STATE SPACE MODELS OF AIDS EPIDEMIOLOGY IN HOMOSEXUAL POPULATIONS - Quantitative Medical Data Analysis Using Mathematical Tools and Statistical Techniques - page 58

bution and to monitor convergence of the multi-level Gibbs sampling
method, we have assumed many other dierent incubation distributions as
the initial assumed distribution. These assumed distributions include uni-
form distribution, exponential distribution, Gamma distribution, Weibull
distribution and the generalized Gamma distributions with the same mean
value of 10 years. We are elated to nd out that all initial distributions gave
almost identical estimates.
6. Conclusions
In this article, we have developed a state space model for the AIDS epidemic
in homosexual and bisexual populations. We have developed a generalized
Bayesian method to estimate the unknown parameters and the state vari-
ables. The numerical examples indicate that the methods are useful and
promising. Of course, more studies are needed to further conrm the use-
fulness of the method and to check the eciency of the method.
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