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be made. The combination of wind and solar in decentralised
combined heat and power (CHP) plants producing both electricity
and heat for the local community may well be the most promising
vision for the future. But additional research and experimentation
is required, not least as regards energy storage, as both the wind
and sun are irregular sources.
1.
The Energy Trap
No one can foresee how the energy descent scenario will play
out, other than to say it will be a traumatic and painful experience
for everyone. But I would like to point out one important factor
that we should bear in mind no matter what else we do in this
period-the risk of falling into an “energy trap”.
A fatal energy trap could condemn humanity to become a
subsistence civilisation if we are not very careful with how we use
the remaining fossil fuel resources. The production of alternative
energy sources, such as solar power plants, windmills, and wave
and geothermal energy, all require fossil fuel energy. It takes energy
to mine the metals and manufacture the necessary inputs in order
to build alternative energy power plants. Today this energy can
only come from one source—fossil fuels. Imagine for a moment
what will happen when the oil and gas runs out in a matter of
decades at current usage rates. Not enough fossil fuel energy
will be available to build or maintain windmills and solar power
plants. Unless some unforeseen energy breakthrough occurs,
humankind will be doomed to a subsistence-level low-energy future
with a much smaller population. This is the energy trap we must
avoid at all costs.
If we plan carefully, we should be able to fulfill our energy
needs without fossil fuels in the long run. An IPCC report in May
2011 estimated that we could meet 80% of our global energy needs
with renewables by 2050 while keeping the CO
concentration in
the atmosphere under 450 ppm. The major problem, as the IPCC
also points out, is political will [8].
Avoiding the energy trap may well be the greatest challenge
facing humankind in the coming decades. Solar energy, supple-
mented by wind power, is the key to a long-term solution because
of the enormous amounts that impact the planet every day and
will continue to do so for at least a billion years. But in the long
2
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