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[36],
Fig
ure 3.4
El Niño regions in the world.
Line
——
-0.5
——
Norm
PgEn
(Wolter and Timlin, 1993). To keep the MEI comparable, all seasonal val-
ues are standardized with respect to each season and to the 1950-93 ref-
erence period. Further information about MEI and data sets can be found
on the NOAA Web site (
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/enso.mei index.
Recently, the Cuban Meteorological Service began to use a composite
ENSO index, IE:
S
(
MSSTA
)(
MSOI
)
[3.1]
where MSSTA is the three-month moving average of the sea surface tem-
perature anomaly for El Niño 3 region, MSOI is the three-month moving
average of the SOI index, and
S
is1or
IE
=
[36],
1 depending on if the MSOI is
positive or negative, respectively. Further information on the IE is available
on a Web site (
http://www.met.inf.cu
).
This composite index has proved
better for the ENSO impact studies for Cuba than the traditional single
indices (Cardenas and Naranjo, 1999).
By monitoring data for past events and the data for the months leading
up to an event, scientists can use numerical models to help predict and/or
simulate ENSO events. The dynamic coupled nature of the new models has
allowed for prediction of ENSO events a year or more in advance. ENSO
advisories are used to a lesser extent in planning in North America and
other extratropical countries because the links between ENSO and weather
patterns are less clear in these countries. As prediction models improve,
the role of ENSO advisories for planning in the mid-latitude countries will
increase.
−
C
onclusions
El Niño and Southern Oscillation is one of the main features responsible
for interannual climate variability. Although it is an ocean—atmospheric
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