Agriculture Reference
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Table 34.1 Changes in climatic normals (1961-90) of wheat yield and its annual
variability (%) according to paleoclimatic scenarios of temperature and precipitation
changes caused by global warming in 2010 and 2050
2010
2050
Region
Productivity
Variability
Productivity
Variability
United States
North Dakota
-1
+
20
+
35
-20
South Dakota
-4
+
22
+
31
-19
Nebraska
-5
+
18
+
29
-24
Colorado
0
+
3
+
25
-22
Kansas
0
+
8
+
24
-15
Oklahoma
+
4
+
1
+
21
-11
Minnesota
0
+
14
+
32
-16
[447
Iowa
-1
+
16
+
27
-15
Missouri
+
1
+
8
+
19
-12
Illinois
0
+
10
+
24
-13
Michigan
+
2
+
11
+
23
-9
Line
——
0.4
——
Long
PgEn
Ohio
+
1
+
8
+
21
-8
Russia
St. Petersburg
+
19
0
+
36
-20
+
+
+
Vorovezh
7
5
26
-21
+
+
+
Toula
8
5
29
-17
Lipetsk
+
7
+
4
+
31
-19
Belgorod
+
8
+
4
+
31
-18
Krasnodar
+
17
-17
+
31
-31
Volgograd
+
12
-18
+
52
-35
N. Novgorod
+
8
-8
+
35
-24
[447
Tatarstan
+
8
-7
+
38
-25
Orenburg
+
17
-18
+
58
-37
Chelyabinsk
+
13
-13
+
42
-35
Altay
+
14
-19
+
44
-28
Europe
Poland
+
14
+
4
+
35
-22
Spain
+
6
-2
+
22
-25
France
+
9
-3
+
28
-12
Germany
+
7
+
2
+
23
-17
Italy
+
4
-5
+
16
-20
Romania
+
10
-5
+
31
-23
Bulgaria
+
12
-8
+
28
-20
United Kingdom
+
17
0
+
21
-5
Hungary
+
3
-3
+
16
-20
Ukraine
+
5
-5
+
20
-24
Baltic Rep.
+
16
+
3
+
32
-24
Denmark
+
16
+
3
+
26
-11
Considering the perspective of future research in this field, it is neces-
sary to notice that the weakest and the most complex component of such
research is the development of the reliable forecasts of regional climate
changes. Although recent research work on predicting climate change has
made great advances at the global scale, predictions of regional climate
change are still unreliable. Until there are considerable improvements in
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