Climate Change, Global Warming, and Agricultural Droughts - Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought: A Global Study - page 446

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46

[446

Line
——
0.9
——
Long
PgEn

Figure 34.7 The correlation between normal annual precipitation (mm) and A-indicator (A)
of wheat yield abnormality.

[446

changes on the climatic normal for wheat productivity in U.S. states, where
th is impact is usually less than in the Russian regions and in European
co untries. But later in the phase of higher global warming in the middle of
th is century, the effect of partial drought that increased in some U.S. states
in the first decade of this century will vanish because the atmospheric pre-
ci pitation in agricultural regions of the United States, Russia, and Europe
w ill increase, according to the Pliocene optimum scenario.

C onclusions
Modern anthropogenic global warming, which has already begun to man-
ifest itself in many of the earth's regions, is the main factor for the occur-
rence of droughts causing low crop yields in some countries. In the past
few decades we observed uniformity in the occurrence of droughts and
crop productivity in major wheat-producing regions of the world. In gen-
eral, in the regions of the moderate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere,
a global warming exceeding 1°C will be favorable for obtaining higher and
stable agricultural production. This should promote the planting of more
productive thermophilic crops in the northern areas and more hydrophilic
cultivars in current arid zones.