Food and Agriculture Organization and Agricultural Droughts - Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought: A Global Study - page 418

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46

eastern Africa and the Horn of Africa, and the design and management of
strategic food security reserves.

Ea rly Warning and Forecasting Programs

Since March 1997, FAO has intensified the monitoring of weather devel-
opments and crop prospects in all parts of the world through GIEWS. The
system has issued two reports on the impact of El Niño on crop produc-
tion in Latin America and Asia. In 1997-98 the focus changed to southern
Africa, where the growing season was just commencing at the time. GIEWS
discussed with the World Food Program (WFP) the possibility of launching
advance emergency operations and sending crop and food supply assess-
ment missions to southern Africa if drought conditions developed. These
plans were jointly approved by the director-general (FAO) and the exec-
utive director (WFP). The systems assessments provide a lead in initiating
food aid and agricultural rehabilitation activities in affected countries.
FAO has helped develop early warning units that work hand in hand
with the GIEWS. Among such units are the SADC Regional Early Warning
System (REWS), which operates as an integrated system, based in Harare,
and autonomous National Early Warning Units (NEWUs) in each of the 14
SADC member countries. Their activities are coordinated by REWS. The
main objective of the SADC-REWS is to provide member countries and
the international community with advance information on food security
prospects in the region through assessments of expected food production,
food supplies, and requirements.
The REWU compiles food security data for the SADC region based on
the contributions received from the various NEWUs by fax and e-mail
and aggregates this information for subsequent publication in a Quarterly
Food Security Bulletin , supplemented by monthly updates. Similarly, the
NEWUs themselves prepare national food security bulletins. Relevant ad-
hoc reports are also submitted directly to decision-makers, as required.
During the crop-growing season, data are collected on rainfall for every
dekad, on crop stages and conditions, and on any adverse effects such
as agricultural drought. This information is compiled by NEWU agro-
meteorologists and is submitted to the REWU for aggregation into 10-day
agrometeorological bulletins. Satellite imagery (CCD and NDVI) is used to
support and verify ground observations as well as to monitor agricultural
drought in the region. FAO has also developed agrometeorological maize-
yield forecasting models for each country, based on crop water-satisfaction
indices, with a view to forecast preharvest yields (Dorenbos and Kassam,
1976).

[418

Line
——
0.0
——
Norm
PgEn

[418

Fu ture Directions
FAO recognizes that about 70% of the agricultural areas in the Near East
region (chapter 16) are arid or semiarid. Only 20% of the total lands