World Meteorological Organization and Agricultural Droughts - Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought: A Global Study - page 405

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coordinated by WMO, provide a solid operational framework on which
to build improved warning capacity. The Global Observing System, the
analytical capability of the Global Data Processing System, and the abil-
ity to disseminate warnings through the Global Telecommunications Sys-
tems form the basis of early warning for meteorological- and hydrological-
related phenomena. The provision of meteorological and hydrological sup-
port to early warning is perhaps the most fundamental aspect of services
supplied by NMHS, and it contributes to all four phases of early warning
systems: mitigation or prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery.
The application of climatological and hydrological knowledge to assess
risk and to plan land use contributes to disaster mitigation. The classical
role of providing forecast and warnings of severe weather, extreme tem-
peratures, and droughts or floods contributes to preparedness. Updated
warnings, forecasts, observations, and consultation with emergency and
relief agencies contribute to the response phase. Finally, special forecast
and other advice assist recovery operations.
Over the last several decades, major advances have been made in weather
forecasting, that is, up to about a week for mid-latitudes, but the under-
standing of El Niño represents the first major breakthrough in the predic-
tion of the longer term climate.

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C limate Information and Prediction Services

Prediction on seasonal and longer time scales, as a basis for warning, is
a developing community service. WMO believes that the progress being
made in climate research, where appropriate, should be translated into
forms that will elevate the socioeconomic well-being of humanity. In 1995
WMO Twelfth Meteorological Congress (WMO, 1995) endorsed the Cli-
mate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) project to build on re-
search achievements to improve economic and social decisions. WMO has
been coordinating or has organized research liaison between the various in-
terested groups through the co-sponsorship of workshops, seminars, and
conferences, and through the organization of special training events on
El Niño.
In collaboration with partner institutions, WMO has organized sev-
eral Regional Climate Outlook Fora (RCOF; www.wmo.ch/web/wcp/clips
2001/html/index.html) in many parts of the world. The forums have en-
abled researchers from various advanced climate prediction centers and
regional operational climate centers and experts from NMHSs, to develop
consensus or consolidated climate outlook guidance products, together
with guidance on interpretation, for dissemination to users. The RCOF
proved to be a very effective capacity-building mechanism for the NMHSs
in terms of the transfer of knowledge of the current state of development
and limitations of seasonal climate prediction science. The forums were
therefore used to enhance the regional and climate outlooks and associated
impact projections during El Niño events.

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