Agricultural Drought in Indonesia - Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought: A Global Study - page 333

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Table 26.1 El Nino and drought events in
Indonesia, 1844-1998 a

1844-97 1902-98

Drought El Ni no Drought El Ni no

1844-45 1844 1902-03 1902

1845-46 1845 1905-06 1905

1850-51 1850 1913-14 1914

1853-54 None 1918-19 1918

1855-56 1855 1923-24 1923

1857-58 1857 1925-26 1925

1864-65 1864 1929-30 1929

1873-74 1873 1932-33 1932

1875-76 1875 1835-36 None

1877-78 1877 1940-41 1939

[333

1881-82 1880 1941-42 1941

1883-84 None 1944-45 1943

1884-85 1884 1945-46 1946

Line
——
1.6
——
Norm
PgEn

1888-89 1887 1953-54 1953

1891-92 1891 1861-62 None

1896-97 1896 1963-64 1963

1965-66 1965

1967-68 None

1969-70 1969

1972-73 1972

1976-77 1976

1980-81 None

1982-83 1982

[333

1986-87 1986

1991-92 1991

1994-95 1994

1997-98 1997

Source: Updated from Quinn et al. (1978) and ADB and
BAPPENAS (1999).
a In drought years, about 60-90% of the Indonesian re-
gions have rainfall below normal.

1981, 1983; Hackert and Hastenrath, 1986; Hastenrath, 1987; Malin-
greau, 1987; Harger, 1995; Yamanaka, 1998; chapter 3).
El Niño-related droughts occur when the Hadley cells are weak and the
massive subsiding air over Indonesia feeds the increasingly westerly flow of
surface air over the Pacific Ocean (Tjasyono, 1997; Kirono and Partridge,
2002). This results in the weakening or failure of the Walker circulation
(Tjasyono, 1997). When the Hadley circulation is strong and the favorable
local climate conditions prevail, subsidence can be localized, even during
an El Niño event.
The effect of El Niño on rainfall varies between regions. It is strong in
regions that are strongly influenced by monsoon systems, weak in regions
that have equatorial systems, and unclear in regions that have local systems