Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
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Figure 22.3
An example of one of the Livestock Early Warning System's products that reflects
th
e percent deviation in forage standing crop for cattle compared to 30-year means of standing
cro
p for a monitoring point in southeastern Kenya.
75% ranking of the corresponding 90-day interval from that date based on
90-day accumulated rainfall from the 30-year generated weather data.
A new promising projection technique developed by Al-Hamad (2002)
has been applied to LEWS, where point-based biophysical simulation of
forage production coupled with 8-km Advanced Very High Resolution
Radiometer-NDVI data was used as a forecasting method for near-term
forage production. NDVI data is de-noised using wavelet method (Percival
and Walden, 2000) and is then co-regressed with standing crop of forage at
the monitoring sites using the Box and Jenkins model or ARIMA procedure
for forecasting. This methodology appears to offer stable projections of
forage conditions typically from 60 to 90 days.
[291
C
ommunity Outreach Program
Perhaps the most difficult issue to address in drought monitoring systems is
devising effective communication frameworks with pastoral communities
that provide information valued by community leaders and individuals in a
manner that will result in rational and proactive decisions. All of the early
warning institutions in East Africa working with LEWS have identified
effective communication with pastoral communities as one of the major
weaknesses in their information dissemination system. Currently, LEWS
is exploring different models for communicating monitoring products in-
cluding training local nongovernmental organizations operating in pastoral
communities, placement and training of community-based site monitors,
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