Monitoring Agricultural Drought in Southern Africa - Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought: A Global Study - page 274

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centers to produce regional forecasts for seasonal precipitation. These fore-
casts are disseminated to national meteorological services and other con-
cerned agencies in the subregion.

Conclusions
D rought is endemic to southern Africa. Sustainable livelihoods across the
su bregion depend to a large extent on how well the subregion's economies
ca n absorb the multiple stresses that arise from drought. The goal of sus-
ta inable livelihoods under a highly variable climatic regime can only be at-
ta ined through environmental monitoring supported by a well-structured
re search strategy. A number of gray areas exist that limit drought mit-
ig ation strategies in southern Africa. Little is known about the physical
m echanisms that trigger, prolong, and end drought episodes. Currently, no
ob jective and scientifically sound thresholds and guidelines have been de-
fin ed to provide effective drought early warning conditions beyond which
na ture and society cannot cope without intervention. The interface between
op erational drought monitoring and users of the information is currently
ei ther poorly defined or nonexistent. Research to define how operational
dr ought monitoring systems can be better integrated to provide more useful
gu idance to socioeconomic activities at national level is therefore crucial.

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